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The theory of nomic probability

John L. Pollock

pp. 263-299

Abstract

This article sketches a theory of objective probability focusing on nomic probability, which is supposed to be the kind of probability figuring in statistical laws of nature. The theory is based upon a strengthened probability calculus and some epistemological principles that formulate a precise version of the statistical syllogism. It is shown that from this rather minimal basis it is possible to derive theorems comprising (1) a theory of direct inference, and (2) a theory of induction. The theory of induction is not of the familiar Bayesian variety, but consists of a precise version of the traditional Nicod Principle and its statistical analogues.

Publication details

Published in:

(1992) Synthese 90 (2).

Pages: 263-299

DOI: 10.1007/BF00485353

Full citation:

Pollock John L. (1992) „The theory of nomic probability“. Synthese 90 (2), 263–299.