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Local, general and universal prediction methods
a game-theoretical approach to the problem of induction
pp. 267-278
Abstract
A notorious obstacle towards a solution of the problem of induction lies in the fact that the success object-inductive prediction methods (i.e. methods applied at the level of events) cannot be shown to be universally optimal. My proposal towards a solution of the problem of induction is meta-induction. By means of mathematical analysis and computer simulations of prediction games, I show that there exist meta-inductive prediction strategies whose success is universally optimal, modulo short-run losses which are upper-bounded. I explain the implications of my approach for the evolution of cognition, and suggest a revision of the paradigm of bounded rationality by introducing the distinction between local, general and universal prediction strategies.
Publication details
Published in:
Surez Mauricio, Dorato Mauro, Rédei Miklós (2010) Epsa epistemology and methodology of science: launch of the European philosophy of science association. Dordrecht, Springer.
Pages: 267-278
DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-3263-8_23
Full citation:
Schurz Gerhard (2010) „Local, general and universal prediction methods: a game-theoretical approach to the problem of induction“, In: M. Surez, M. Dorato & M. Rédei (eds.), Epsa epistemology and methodology of science, Dordrecht, Springer, 267–278.